Here's what happened with President Obama stepped off Air Force One this morning, and was greeted by Arizona Governor Jan Brewer:
I know this may sound a bit odd coming from a Texan, especially after the other 49 states' impression of Texas has now been altered to mean "25 million yahoos just like Rick Perry," but Florida is totally weird. And that's precisely why Florida is absolutely key to the Republican nomination for President.
It's why you see Newt Gingrich talking about building a moon base - it's to help gain support in space-crazed Florida by pandering to voters there. If Gingrich doubles down and also promises to move to the moon base, he'll gain even more support among Florida Republicans.
It's why you see Romney talking about Fidel Castro croaking. Extra credit for anybody who explains in the comments section what Mormons think happens to people after they croak, because Romney is hinting that it could be bad for Fidel.
And it's why Santorum and Paul matter not one bit.
Florida Republicans apparently love breaking rules. They moved their primary date up in the batting order, which broke one RNC rule. As a result it has cost them half their delegation to the Republican National Convention. So they will presumably get 50 delegates instead of 99 delegates.
But here's the other rule they broke, and it's why nobody matters except Romney and Gingrich: it's a winner-take-all state, not proportional. Nobody gets any delegates unless they come in first. So unless somebody goes to court and wins on that point, one of the leading candidates is about to go way ahead, with more delegates than all the previous states combined.
Ron Paul's campaign recognizes that, and it's why he's not even competing in Florida, instead looking ahead to Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota. Santorum is the odd man out -- too serious a candidate to ignore such a major state, and not serious enough to reap any delegate benefit from it.
Add to that the fact that Florida is a big huge expensive complicated place, with expensive media markets, and you'll see why the stakes are so high for Gingrich and Romney - it is not without considerable investment and organization that somebody is about to go down big.
Keep and eye on the Florida primary - it's a big deal.
On last week's "Capital Tonight" on YNN Austin, Paul Brown asked me about Rick Perry's fortunes looking forward. Here's what I said. It's a theory that's out there.
Doesn't it seem like just yesterday when there were six major Republican candidates leaving New Hampshire heading full-steam to South Carolina, despite a near-universal feeling of inevitability of a Mitt Romney nomination?
Fast forward to today, voting day in South Carolina. Suddenly there are only four candidates instead of six. By all recent measures, Romney (AKA "Cayman Islands Tax Shelter Lay'er Off'er Dude") is collapsing, and the guy with all the momentum is Gingrich (AKA "The Vagina Whisperer").
Don't get me to explaining Republican primary voters in South Carolina. But if you look at the history of Republican presidential primaries in South Carolina, it is clear that the state is where Republican candidates' hopes and dreams go to die.
It appears that revelations of Mitt Romney's tax shelter scheme have stopped his momentum, which really doesn't surprise me. It probably doesn't surprise many Texans who remember the 1990 Governor's race here, in which Republican Clayton Williams was in the lead a few days out from the election, when he suddenly admitted that he hadn't paid any taxes recently. In a related story, odds are that unless you're reading this in Texas, you've never heard of Clayton Williams, and there's a reason for that: he lost the election. Bet you've heard of the woman who beat him: Ann Richards. Voters don't like rich guys who don't fork over their fair share.
More surprising is the likelihood that evangelical voters in South Carolina are simply shrugging off revelations that Gingrich apparently told his second ex-wife that he wanted an open marriage. This, according to his second ex-wife, who before she was his second ex-wife, was his second wife, and before that, she was his first home-wrecker. She was replaced by his second home-wrecker, who is now his third wife Callista, and who will in all likelihood someday be known as his third ex-wife, to be traded for a third home wrecker to be named later, perhaps as a first round draft pick of future Newt staffers. Take notes and keep up, this is confusing.
Explanations for conservative evangelicals not caring about this sordid soap opera? Beats me. Maybe more people than I thought have second ex-wife problems. Maybe they believe Rush Limbaugh when he says Newt is the real victim here. Maybe Mittens' tax issue is so pervasive that voters don't care what Newt's ex-wife says. Maybe Republican primary voters are more worried about the Second Amendment than the Seventh Commandment.
The news could not be better for President Obama's campaign. The longer this Republican clown car process is in question, the better off Obama's reelection efforts look.
No matter the results tonight in South Carolina, I still think Tax Shelter Dude has the edge over The Vagina Whisperer. Up next in the batting order of primary states is Florida, which for the geopolitically impaired, is a really big expensive complicated state. Gingrich has, so far, been unencumbered with such trifles as raising money and building a campaign infrastructure, which is a lot easier to get away with in smaller states with inexpensive media markets. Mittens should arrive in Florida with an advantage, if campaign mechanics mean anything in the Republican clown car show.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul (AKA "Dr. Wackadoodle") hasn't really caught on in South Carolina (but might still come in ahead of "Santorum The Hapless") and is skipping Florida and looking ahead to early February, to Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota.
Get more popcorn. The show's not over yet. And the longer it drags on, the better the nicknames will get.
Now that America has dispatched with Rick Perry's campaign for President, we can get back to the important stuff around here. And by that of course I mean the headline of the day.
Read more...You may have noticed the protest pop-up, my part in keeping a free and open internet, on your way to reading the blog today. Find out more:
What Google has to say.
What Wikipedia has to say.
Sign the petition to cut the crap.
Every January 15th, wherever I am I raise my glass in a toast to Edward Blumingfield, for his birthday. Why? Who the hell is Edward Blumingfield? I’m glad you asked.
In second grade at Kolter Elementary School in Houston, I tossed caution to the winds and decided to throw my hat into the ring and pursue a life of public service. That’s right: I ran for class weatherman.
I lost. By one vote. To Edward Blumingfield.
You see, Edward went negative. He claimed that he would make a much better class weatherman because, as he put it, he was older than me.
Edward was born on January 15, in the evening. I was born 4 hours later, in the early morning hours of January 16th. Same hospital, same floor.
Edward taught me, way back in 2nd grade, an important lesson about negative campaigning. I am eternally grateful. So every year on his birthday, I toast his memory.
And by the way, the forecast in Austin today is for mostly sunny skies. High near 70, low of 43, winds out of the Southwest at 10, gusting to 20. And I bet wherever Edward Blumingfield is, he didn’t freakin’ know that, the little asshole.
…but I’m not bitter.
Yesterday, Texas Monthly's Paul Burka wrote a provocative piece in which he mulled over whether Rick Perry wants Mitt Romney to lose. The crux of the piece is, if Perry is now attempting to set himself up for another Presidential run in 2016, then Obama would need to win re-election, since otherwise Romney (presumably) would be an incumbent Republican seeking re-election in 2016.
I have no idea if Burka's theory holds water and neither does he - it's just one possibility. But if if he's on the right track, let's add to the palace intrigue.
If Governor Perry wants to run in 2016, he'll need to do something different than he's been doing between now and then. Something which keeps him in the public eye, but also adds to his experience and credibility, so that Republican primary voters will see him in a different light down the road, and take a second serious look at Perry when the time comes.
It's pretty obvious that Perry's candidacy is over after South Carolina, which is 8 days from now. It's difficult to imagine him coming home, returning to his job as Governor, and continuing the status quo as if nothing had ever happened.
But if 2016 is really on his mind? Guess what - go read the court order on filing deadlines from the San Antonio Federal Court. It apparently means that when and if the Congressional and legislative maps are ever cleared up, filing will re-open for all offices, not just the ones for which the maps may change.
Perry could unexpectedly file for the U.S. Senate when filing re-opens, and, arguably, would immediately be the frontrunner in the race. The current frontrunner, David Dewhurst, could merely withdraw as a Senate candidate, wait for Perry to win in the Senate race, then Dewhurst would automatically move into the Governor's office. And, if for some reason that big plan doesn't work out for Perry, it's a free ride and he's still governor for 2 more years.
The advantage for Perry is that he'd be pressing the reset button, and the U.S. Senate could be the national stage from which he gains foreign policy experience, proves he can fight against bloated budgets, show the extent to which he can out-Republican other Senate Republicans in fighting the President's health care policy, and anything else Perry dreams up to upset D.C. apple carts.
I don't pretend to know anything about Rick Perry's plans, but if there's any truth to Burka's musings on 2016, the scenario is one which might work as well for Perry as any other.
Here's what happened with President Obama stepped off Air Force One this morning, and was greeted by Arizona Governor Jan Brewer:
I know this may sound a bit odd coming from a Texan, especially after the other 49 states' impression of Texas has now been altered to mean "25 million yahoos just like Rick Perry," but Florida is totally weird. And that's precisely why Florida is absolutely key to the Republican nomination for President.
It's why you see Newt Gingrich talking about building a moon base - it's to help gain support in space-crazed Florida by pandering to voters there. If Gingrich doubles down and also promises to move to the moon base, he'll gain even more support among Florida Republicans.
It's why you see Romney talking about Fidel Castro croaking. Extra credit for anybody who explains in the comments section what Mormons think happens to people after they croak, because Romney is hinting that it could be bad for Fidel.
And it's why Santorum and Paul matter not one bit.
Florida Republicans apparently love breaking rules. They moved their primary date up in the batting order, which broke one RNC rule. As a result it has cost them half their delegation to the Republican National Convention. So they will presumably get 50 delegates instead of 99 delegates.
But here's the other rule they broke, and it's why nobody matters except Romney and Gingrich: it's a winner-take-all state, not proportional. Nobody gets any delegates unless they come in first. So unless somebody goes to court and wins on that point, one of the leading candidates is about to go way ahead, with more delegates than all the previous states combined.
Ron Paul's campaign recognizes that, and it's why he's not even competing in Florida, instead looking ahead to Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota. Santorum is the odd man out -- too serious a candidate to ignore such a major state, and not serious enough to reap any delegate benefit from it.
Add to that the fact that Florida is a big huge expensive complicated place, with expensive media markets, and you'll see why the stakes are so high for Gingrich and Romney - it is not without considerable investment and organization that somebody is about to go down big.
Keep and eye on the Florida primary - it's a big deal.
On last week's "Capital Tonight" on YNN Austin, Paul Brown asked me about Rick Perry's fortunes looking forward. Here's what I said. It's a theory that's out there.
Doesn't it seem like just yesterday when there were six major Republican candidates leaving New Hampshire heading full-steam to South Carolina, despite a near-universal feeling of inevitability of a Mitt Romney nomination?
Fast forward to today, voting day in South Carolina. Suddenly there are only four candidates instead of six. By all recent measures, Romney (AKA "Cayman Islands Tax Shelter Lay'er Off'er Dude") is collapsing, and the guy with all the momentum is Gingrich (AKA "The Vagina Whisperer").
Don't get me to explaining Republican primary voters in South Carolina. But if you look at the history of Republican presidential primaries in South Carolina, it is clear that the state is where Republican candidates' hopes and dreams go to die.
It appears that revelations of Mitt Romney's tax shelter scheme have stopped his momentum, which really doesn't surprise me. It probably doesn't surprise many Texans who remember the 1990 Governor's race here, in which Republican Clayton Williams was in the lead a few days out from the election, when he suddenly admitted that he hadn't paid any taxes recently. In a related story, odds are that unless you're reading this in Texas, you've never heard of Clayton Williams, and there's a reason for that: he lost the election. Bet you've heard of the woman who beat him: Ann Richards. Voters don't like rich guys who don't fork over their fair share.
More surprising is the likelihood that evangelical voters in South Carolina are simply shrugging off revelations that Gingrich apparently told his second ex-wife that he wanted an open marriage. This, according to his second ex-wife, who before she was his second ex-wife, was his second wife, and before that, she was his first home-wrecker. She was replaced by his second home-wrecker, who is now his third wife Callista, and who will in all likelihood someday be known as his third ex-wife, to be traded for a third home wrecker to be named later, perhaps as a first round draft pick of future Newt staffers. Take notes and keep up, this is confusing.
Explanations for conservative evangelicals not caring about this sordid soap opera? Beats me. Maybe more people than I thought have second ex-wife problems. Maybe they believe Rush Limbaugh when he says Newt is the real victim here. Maybe Mittens' tax issue is so pervasive that voters don't care what Newt's ex-wife says. Maybe Republican primary voters are more worried about the Second Amendment than the Seventh Commandment.
The news could not be better for President Obama's campaign. The longer this Republican clown car process is in question, the better off Obama's reelection efforts look.
No matter the results tonight in South Carolina, I still think Tax Shelter Dude has the edge over The Vagina Whisperer. Up next in the batting order of primary states is Florida, which for the geopolitically impaired, is a really big expensive complicated state. Gingrich has, so far, been unencumbered with such trifles as raising money and building a campaign infrastructure, which is a lot easier to get away with in smaller states with inexpensive media markets. Mittens should arrive in Florida with an advantage, if campaign mechanics mean anything in the Republican clown car show.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul (AKA "Dr. Wackadoodle") hasn't really caught on in South Carolina (but might still come in ahead of "Santorum The Hapless") and is skipping Florida and looking ahead to early February, to Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota.
Get more popcorn. The show's not over yet. And the longer it drags on, the better the nicknames will get.
Now that America has dispatched with Rick Perry's campaign for President, we can get back to the important stuff around here. And by that of course I mean the headline of the day.
Read more...
You may have noticed the protest pop-up, my part in keeping a free and open internet, on your way to reading the blog today. Find out more:
What Google has to say.
What Wikipedia has to say.
Sign the petition to cut the crap.
Every January 15th, wherever I am I raise my glass in a toast to Edward Blumingfield, for his birthday. Why? Who the hell is Edward Blumingfield? I’m glad you asked.
In second grade at Kolter Elementary School in Houston, I tossed caution to the winds and decided to throw my hat into the ring and pursue a life of public service. That’s right: I ran for class weatherman.
I lost. By one vote. To Edward Blumingfield.
You see, Edward went negative. He claimed that he would make a much better class weatherman because, as he put it, he was older than me.
Edward was born on January 15, in the evening. I was born 4 hours later, in the early morning hours of January 16th. Same hospital, same floor.
Edward taught me, way back in 2nd grade, an important lesson about negative campaigning. I am eternally grateful. So every year on his birthday, I toast his memory.
And by the way, the forecast in Austin today is for mostly sunny skies. High near 70, low of 43, winds out of the Southwest at 10, gusting to 20. And I bet wherever Edward Blumingfield is, he didn’t freakin’ know that, the little asshole.
…but I’m not bitter.
Yesterday, Texas Monthly's Paul Burka wrote a provocative piece in which he mulled over whether Rick Perry wants Mitt Romney to lose. The crux of the piece is, if Perry is now attempting to set himself up for another Presidential run in 2016, then Obama would need to win re-election, since otherwise Romney (presumably) would be an incumbent Republican seeking re-election in 2016.
I have no idea if Burka's theory holds water and neither does he - it's just one possibility. But if if he's on the right track, let's add to the palace intrigue.
If Governor Perry wants to run in 2016, he'll need to do something different than he's been doing between now and then. Something which keeps him in the public eye, but also adds to his experience and credibility, so that Republican primary voters will see him in a different light down the road, and take a second serious look at Perry when the time comes.
It's pretty obvious that Perry's candidacy is over after South Carolina, which is 8 days from now. It's difficult to imagine him coming home, returning to his job as Governor, and continuing the status quo as if nothing had ever happened.
But if 2016 is really on his mind? Guess what - go read the court order on filing deadlines from the San Antonio Federal Court. It apparently means that when and if the Congressional and legislative maps are ever cleared up, filing will re-open for all offices, not just the ones for which the maps may change.
Perry could unexpectedly file for the U.S. Senate when filing re-opens, and, arguably, would immediately be the frontrunner in the race. The current frontrunner, David Dewhurst, could merely withdraw as a Senate candidate, wait for Perry to win in the Senate race, then Dewhurst would automatically move into the Governor's office. And, if for some reason that big plan doesn't work out for Perry, it's a free ride and he's still governor for 2 more years.
The advantage for Perry is that he'd be pressing the reset button, and the U.S. Senate could be the national stage from which he gains foreign policy experience, proves he can fight against bloated budgets, show the extent to which he can out-Republican other Senate Republicans in fighting the President's health care policy, and anything else Perry dreams up to upset D.C. apple carts.
I don't pretend to know anything about Rick Perry's plans, but if there's any truth to Burka's musings on 2016, the scenario is one which might work as well for Perry as any other.
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